• Growth in Single-Family Home Prices: Single-family home prices in the Phoenix MSA have shown exceptional growth since 2020, reaching their highest level ever in April 2024.

• Data on Single Family Rental Rate Changes: By sampling and analyzing rental rates from 2020 to 2024, we found unprecedented growth of 26.3%.

• Single-Family Home Rental Trend: The data indicates that rental rates for single-family homes will increase in 2024.

• Single Family Rental Market Strength: These insights underscore the robustness of the single-family rental market in the Phoenix MSA, highlighting its resilience and potential profitability for investors amidst fluctuating economic conditions.

Single-Family Home Prices:

Since 2020, we have seen extraordinary growth in single-family home prices. Despite fewer sales, higher inventories, soaring interest rates, and economic difficulties, the housing market continues to climb in price. U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency data shows the Phoenix MSA peaked in 2022, dipped 6% in 2023, and is now growing.

An Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) published report shows April home prices bottoming in 2023 and now at the highest price ever in April 2024, a 242% increase since April 2014.

Single-Family Home Rental Rate Sources:

It’s curious whether rental rates reflect the same upward trend as single-family sales in 2024. This would be excellent news for investors who want to acquire more rental inventory. However, there is a limited supply of data on single-family homes that does not also include multifamily.

Rental Rates Overall:

Analyzing rental data, including multifamily properties, reveals important trends. It’s important to note that multifamily and single-family properties differ significantly from common perceptions. Single-family homes typically attract higher rents due to their desirability. Additionally, the single-family market is distinct and influenced by various factors.

According to Zillow, figures including multifamily and single-family show median rental rates bottomed in January of 2024 and are on a recovery course.

Single Family Rental Rates:

Since historical single-family rental rates can be challenging to find sources for, I have taken random lease samples from ARMLS.   The rental rate data was acquired from ten random homes leased in 2023 and 2024 to see the rental rate change.  I randomly took another sample of ten different homes to see the 2022-2023 variation in rent.  And did the same for 2021 to 2022 and 2020 to 2021.  The results tell the story of significant rental growth of 26.3% over the four years of 2020-2024.

To see an annual trend, we examined the same year-over-year results to see the growth for each year. 2020-2021 had the most significant rent growth, at 20.1%. 2021-2022 had the second most improvement at 7.0%. Then, in 2022-2023, we see gains slow to 1.5%, followed by an increase of 2.0% in 2023-2024. This suggests we are headed back into a period of stability and growth in 2024.

Conclusion: 

The Phoenix Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) has demonstrated remarkable resilience and growth in the single-family rental market from 2020 to 2024. Despite economic challenges and fluctuating market conditions, single-family home prices and rental rates have significantly increased. 

Home prices reached record highs in April 2024.  Rental rates experienced a substantial cumulative growth of 26.3% over four years. The data indicates a move towards market stabilization and continued growth, making the Phoenix MSA an attractive option for investors seeking to capitalize on single-family rentals. This trend suggests a robust housing market poised for sustained positive performance in the foreseeable future.